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CIHI’s Health System Capacity Planning Tool
Changing health resource demands and supply shortfalls related to the COVID-19 pandemic.
The tool’s foundation is a deterministic SEIR model that separates the population into susceptible, exposed,
infected and recovered compartments, and then models the spread of the disease and the movement of the
population among the compartments.
It predicts the number of new daily COVID-19 cases, the number of individuals requiring treatment in critical
care and non–critical care beds with or without a ventilator, and the number of other hospital resources
required to treat these individuals. Users can input their population size and other parameters about the
historical progression of COVID-19 cases in their population. The tool outputs information in tabular and
graph formats on the duration and peak of the pandemic wave, potential demand for each resource, the gap
between capacity and demand, the potential time when capacity will be reached, short-term projection of
demand and other parameters. By adjusting the input parameters, users can perform sensitivity analysis, and
show varying scenarios of disease progression and sensitivity of expected resource demands.
CIHI is continuing to enhance the tool. Considerations include the evolving progression and future waves of
COVID-19, as well as policy discussions around such things as easing of public health measures, the
upcoming influenza season, health human resources capacity, vulnerable populations (e.g., seniors) and the
optimization of health system capacity for other urgent and elective care.
  • Other
  • Other Health Care Workers
Developed by the Canadian Institute for Health Information (CIHI) to be deployed across Canada. The tool is
available to provinces and territories, health regions and hospitals to support health system planning in
response to COVID-19.
  • Critical Care
  • Diagnostic Services
  • Emergency Medical Services
  • Hospitals
  • Long-Term Care
  • Primary Health Care
Research Intervention - outcome data available
Canadian Institute for Health Information (CIHI)
Canada

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